By Surabhi Rajpal, Senior Research Analyst, S&P Global
Mobility
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China's autonomous vehicle (AV) sector is experiencing
significant growth on its own and compared to other markets. In
mainland China, there is extensive road testing being conducted in
several cities. Major tech companies such as Baidu, Pony.ai, and
WeRide are leading the charge in testing and deploying AVs across
various cities. Expansion is bolstered by initiatives from the
Chinese government, such as establishing pilot zones, issuing
licenses, and developing regulations and standards.
In June 2024, the government selected 20 cities to participate
in a pilot program aimed at creating roadside infrastructure and a
cloud-based control platform for the operation of “smart connected
vehicles.”
At an August 2024 conference in Beijing, the Ministry of Public
Security announced that 32,000 kilometers of roads have been
established for AV testing and that 16,000 test licenses have been
issued nationwide. Currently, at least 19 cities are testing
robotaxis and robo-buses, with nine automakers granted approval in
June to test advanced automated driving technologies on public
roads.
Here is a breakdown on how these advancements are playing out
across different cities.
Wuhan
The city of Wuhan is recognized as a global leader in
intelligent vehicle transportation, having permitted nearly 500
autonomous taxis (with a supervisor in the driver's seat) from
Baidu's Apollo Go, which is approximately 1% of total taxis in
operation in the city. Although the scale of the deployment is
relatively small in number of vehicles, the deployment area spans
the breadth of the city. Baidu aims to achieve break-even in Wuhan
by the end 2024 and plans to deploy 1,000 robotaxis in the city by
then.
Guangzhou
Guangzhou now has 933 testing roads with a one-way distance of
approximately 1,980 km, of which over 260 km are expressways. Over
the past two months, the city released draft regulations for
intelligent connected vehicles (ICVs) to promote their widespread
adoption and develop roadways that accommodate both automated and
human driving. The city then launched its second set of ICV testing
routes on expressways, connecting major transportation hubs like
Guangzhou South Railway Station and Guangzhou Baiyun International
Airport. Apollo Go and Pony.ai are approved autonomous ride-hailing
services and operate 50 autonomous buses covering 10 routes. By
June 30, these buses had completed 525,000 trips, served 1.073
million passengers and traveled 1.742 million kilometers.
Beijing
By early 2024, more than 1,160 kilometers of public roads have
been opened for trials, with 384 vehicles from 18 companies
approved to participate. Baidu, Pony.ai, WeRide, and AutoX are
currently authorized to operate automated shuttle services with a
safety driver between Beijing Daxing International Airport and the
Yizhuang area in the southern part of the city. In July, Beijing
released a draft regulation seeking public feedback on the use of
AVs for public transport, ride-hailing services, car rentals, and
other urban travel options. This marks the most significant
progress in AV technology development in Beijing since road tests
were first allowed in late 2019.
Shanghai
Since opening its first road section for AV testing in March
2018, Shanghai has established four testing demonstration zones in
Jiading, Lingang, Fengxian and Jinqiao. Currently, 32 companies
have secured approval for road testing and pilot operations of 794
vehicles. Shanghai has opened 1,003 roads, spanning over 2,000 km,
for AV testing. The city plans to put driverless robotaxi services
on designated roads in the Pudong financial district, with licenses
granted to four robotaxi companies – Baidu Apollo, AutoX, Pony.ai
and SAIC AI Lab – and aims for over 70% of newly produced cars to
be equipped with Level 2 or Level 3 automated systems by 2025.
Shenzhen
Shenzhen began permitting fully AVs without human drivers to
operate on specific roads, following a local regulation regarding
smart and internet-connected vehicles in 2022. The city has opened
944 km of public roads for testing, including 67 km of highways.
Additionally, Shenzhen is set to launch a fleet of 20 autonomous
minibuses for public transport this year and operations on its
first autonomous bus route, the B998 Autonomous Line, began in
August. The municipal government's action plan, released in June
2023, aims to expand the city's ICV industry to generate 200
billion yuan in revenue by 2025.
China's dominance in the autonomous vehicle
market
China's strong push for automated driving, bolstered by
significant government support and regulatory frameworks, positions
it as a potential leader in the development of AV technology and
relative to commercialization of the AV industry.
In mainland China, an improved investment climate and consumer
demand for advanced technology has prompted many manufacturers to
incorporate high-level advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS)
and Automated Driving Systems especially in Level 2+ use cases.
Direction from policymakers on the importance of AI and its
applications in autonomous vehicles also provides a long-term
orientation to technology development in China and some reassurance
to OEMs. Tesla is reportedly working with Baidu to support its
deployment of Full Self-Driving (FSD) in China and is expected to
intensify competition among Chinese EV manufacturers such as Xpeng
and Nio, who are already offering their own Automated Driving
Systems.
The AV industry in the United States is also experiencing steady
growth, with companies such as Waymo, Cruise, and Zoox actively
developing and refining their technologies, conducting extensive
trials to ensure safety and reliability. Waymo remains the leader
in the US market and is currently the only company operating
fare-collecting driverless taxis with a fleet of about 700
vehicles. By the end of August 2024, Waymo's US paid weekly
robotaxi rides reached 100,000, versus 50,000 per week in May 2024.
Meanwhile, Cruise, supported by General Motors, resumed testing
with a limited number of human-driven vehicles in April in Phoenix,
expanding locations in third quarter 2024, after a pedestrian
incident last year in California which saw its permissions
withdrawn.
The US operates on a self-certification system, allowing
manufacturers to confirm that their products comply with safety
standards such as the Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards
(FMVSS), which may result in varied implementation. Certification
and approvals processes at a state level add another layer for the
US; along with mostly agreeable weather, US states of Arizona and
Nevada have been home to more testing and deployment. California is
the most stringent, requiring California Department of Motor
Vehicles approvals for testing with or without a driver, and the
state determines if the AV can be allowed to charge riders through
a second regulatory body in the California Public Utilities
Commission.
S&P Global Mobility's September 2024
Autonomy Forecasts indicates that development in mainland China
is accelerating, with projections of approximately 250,000 Level 4
AVs sold for mobility services in 2034, representing less than 1%
of light-vehicle sales. Level 4 AV sales for mobility services in
the US are growing at a similar pace, expected to reach about
230,000 units in 2034, which translates to a market share of about
1.5%. Meanwhile, Europe is anticipated to lag behind the US, with
sales starting later and only reaching about 37,000 units in
2034.
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